Status: 07/15/2020 5:22 a.m..
Almost ten percentage points – challenger Biden is currently clearly ahead of incumbent Trump. Even arch-republican Texas could vote for him. But there is still a long way to go, and the 2016 shock runs deep.
By Katrin Brand, ARD Studio Washington.
Election night 2016. The CNN reporter reports petrified faces and people crying. Democratic supporters, who most certainly believed Hillary Clinton in the White House, are devastated.
Trump won, even though almost all polls saw Clinton as the winner.
That sits in the bones of the Democrats and the pollsters to this day. They don’t want to be too happy this year, even though they have reason to. Joe Biden looks like the sure winner right now.
In many national polls, he leads clearly, sometimes even two-digit ahead of Donald Trump. In many of the hotly contested countries he has built himself a head start, stable over the past few weeks. There is a risk of a landslide, write the authors of FiveThirtyEight, http://anews.website/?p=583 an opinion polling website.
Trump versus Biden – who is ahead?
“Lying press, lazy polls, as always”
Everything suddenly seems possible. Even in Texas, a state that hasn’t voted democratic for decades. But Trump has only one point ahead of Biden there, which apparently makes Trump angry. “Lying press, lazy polls, as always,” he said this week, then explained:
“Just one point ahead after bailing out the oil and gas industry and having millions and millions of jobs? I don’t think so!”
Indeed, a great deal would have to happen before Democrat Joe Biden could bring deep republican Texas. But, says Moe Vela, a former advisor to Biden: “If Latinos and African-Americans vote, Trump will run into problems.” Both groups together now make up the majority of the Texan population and both are very critical of Trump. But whether they will vote has not yet been decided.
Because of the pandemic, voting in the US will be even more difficult this time than usual, which could put many off.