This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some decent contests for us for this particular Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, and there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this final competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at the $20k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into money games. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like too as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the slate, in my view. I think he’ll be the better fighter everywhere this battle goes, and he should predominate. I enjoy locking that triumph in my money game and I think he’s a fantastic chance at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I do expect him to be popular in tournaments so if you would like to fade the possession there and try to be more contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so that he can continue all 3 rounds and if he can then Luque might only score from the 80s which will not win any GPPs. However, we could use an ~80-point triumph in cash games since we only have to beat half the area unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the odds. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou at his $7.2k price tag. I expect Ngannou to be the greatest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off near half the field. Also, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to really go down the more his betting line decreases and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, therefore I don’t care for him as much in cash game, but for GPPs we want boom or bust to attempt to get to this 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he’s only a +125 underdog. I think he’s a fantastic shot of winning this fight and I am picking him to get his hand raised. I anticipate this to be an extremely close fight, but I think Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the greater pace and that’s precisely what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside down but we don’t really need that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he has a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he is playable in all formats for me personally.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I believe have a hard time seeing her on the 20k lineup at her wages. I enjoy the 9k range much greater than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based match plans. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this game because I think Evans-Smith has got the edge on the ground and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she is going to have to get it done on the feet and I really don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she will be super low owned, and it’ll create your lineup , but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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